Israeli analyst and director of the Direct Polls research institute, Shlomo Filber, posted a detailed analysis on his X account (formerly Twitter) late Saturday night, claiming that Hamas has lost its international assurances that Israel would not return to military operations in Gaza until the group is entirely dismantled.
According to Filber, for the past year, Hamas had planned to use the remaining hostages as leverage to secure guarantees from countries such as the United States, Russia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. However, today, no nation is willing to provide Hamas with such protection.
The Collapse of Hamas’ International Immunity
Beyond losing these guarantees, Filber asserts that Hamas is also on the verge of losing the protection Washington had previously afforded it by pressuring Israel to allow humanitarian aid to flow through Hamas-controlled channels—effectively giving it control over Gaza’s population.
Now, Filber suggests, Israel has an opportunity to establish a temporary military administration in humanitarian zones, ensuring aid is distributed independently of Hamas. This move would significantly weaken Hamas’ grip on the population and potentially encourage voluntary Palestinian emigration from the region.
Filber notes that Israel has already destroyed approximately 50% of Gaza’s infrastructure, focusing primarily on “marked houses” used as weapons storage sites. With new D9 bulldozer shipments arriving, combined with the Trump administration’s sanctions on the International Criminal Court in The Hague—and Trump’s recent remarks that all that remains is to clear Gaza’s rubble—Israel now has the green light to complete its operation, step by step, until Hamas is fully eradicated.
Hamas at a Crossroads – “Phase 2” in Question
Filber believes that Hamas now faces a critical decision on its next move—but every option available spells trouble for the group:
- Prolonging the ceasefire – Hamas may attempt to delay renewed combat by gradually releasing hostages, hoping that Arab nations, particularly Egypt, will intervene to block the U.S.-Israeli plan to dismantle its rule.
- Negotiating exile in exchange for hostages – Filber speculates that Hamas’ leadership, which has always prioritized its own survival over Gaza’s civilians, will be the first to flee to a third country to save their lives.
- Rejecting negotiations and fighting to the end – This would only accelerate the implementation of the U.S.-Israeli strategy, ultimately leading to Hamas’ total failure.
According to Filber, Phase 2, which Israeli media discussed for a year, has vanished. Israel will not allow Hamas to remain in power under international guarantees. The group’s ability to control Gaza’s population will disintegrate within weeks, and the Strip will continue to be leveled until the threat is eliminated entirely. Time is working against Hamas—its decisions will only become more difficult as military and diplomatic pressure intensifies.
