Israel is preparing for a potential military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the event that nuclear talks between the United States and Iran collapse in the coming weeks, according to multiple Israeli sources who spoke to Axios.
Intelligence Outlook Has Shifted
According to the sources, Israeli intelligence recently revised its assessment: where officials once believed a new nuclear deal was within reach, they now fear the negotiations are headed toward collapse. This change has prompted the Israeli security establishment to accelerate operational planning for a possible rapid and targeted strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Window of Opportunity Closing
One source told Axios that the IDF believes the “operational window” to carry out a successful strike may be closing soon. The source declined to elaborate on what would make a later strike less effective but emphasized that speed will be crucial if the talks fail.
Not a One-Off Strike, But a Full Operation
Sources indicated that a potential Israeli campaign would not be a single airstrike but rather a sustained military operation lasting at least a week. They acknowledged that such a mission would carry considerable risks—not only for Israel, but for regional stability. Several countries in the region have reportedly expressed concerns about possible radioactive fallout and the risk of a wider escalation.
Military Drills Underway
Two Israeli officials confirmed a recent CNN report that the IDF has been conducting extensive drills to prepare for such a scenario. One said: “There have been many exercises, and the U.S. military sees everything. They understand that Israel is preparing.”
A separate source noted that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is waiting for talks to collapse and for a moment when Donald Trump might lose faith in diplomacy, leaving space for Israeli action—possibly with U.S. backing.
U.S. Concerned About Possible Unilateral Action
A senior U.S. official told Axios that the Trump administration is concerned Netanyahu may act without a green light from Washington. According to an Israeli official, Netanyahu recently held a highly sensitive meeting with top ministers, military, and intelligence leaders to discuss developments in the nuclear talks.
Tense Nuclear Talks Resume in Rome
The round of U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations is set to resume tomorrow in Rome. Talks have recently stalled, particularly over Iran’s demand to retain its uranium enrichment capabilities—even in a limited form.
“We have one very clear red line: enrichment,” U.S. negotiator Witkoff said on ABC’s This Week. “We cannot allow even 1% enrichment capability.”
Iranian leaders have consistently insisted they will not sign any agreement that bans enrichment entirely.
