A new survey conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research reveals a significant decline in support for Hamas, both in Gaza and the West Bank. The survey findings indicate serious shifts in Palestinian public opinion since the war began on October 7th.
One of the most notable findings is the sharp decline in support for the October 7th attack. In Gaza, only 39% of respondents now believe that the decision to launch the attack was justified, a dramatic drop from 71% in March and 57% in June and December of last year. In the West Bank, support also fell significantly, from 82% in December to 64% today. Overall, among the Palestinian population, support for the attack decreased from 72% in December to 54% today.
The survey, which included 410 participants from Gaza and 780 Palestinians from the West Bank, also revealed a decline in belief in a possible Hamas victory. Only half of the respondents expect Hamas to win, a significant drop from two-thirds three months ago. The decline is particularly noticeable in Gaza, where only 28% believe in a Hamas victory, compared to 48% three months ago. In the West Bank, belief in a Hamas victory fell from 79% to 65%.
Despite the decrease in support, there is still a widespread belief that Hamas will maintain control over Gaza after the war. 57% of all respondents believe this, though in Gaza itself only 37% hold this view, down from 46% three months ago. When asked about their preferences for future governance, 58% of Palestinians expressed support for Hamas, with a significant gap between the West Bank (73%) and Gaza (36%). Only 20% preferred the Palestinian Authority, 4% favored the IDF, and 12% would like to see international forces in power.
Regarding political support for different factions, Hamas still leads with 36%, but this marks a decline from 40% three months ago. Fatah, on the other hand, saw an increase in support from 20% to 26%. Interestingly, 29% of respondents stated they do not support any political movement.
The survey also examined public preferences for future leadership. In a hypothetical election for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority, Marwan Barghouti from Fatah would receive 32% of the vote, with Yahya Sinwar from Hamas close behind at 31%. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), the current president, would receive only 6% of the vote.
While the survey’s findings are fascinating, they have also raised questions about its reliability. This comes after claims by the IDF of forgery in a previous survey. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Research responded to these allegations in detail, rejecting them and explaining their quality control and verification processes. However, they noted that they have decided to implement additional precautions, including banning the use of pencils during data collection.
The survey results provide a complex picture of Palestinian public opinion at this time. While support for Hamas and its actions is declining, the organization still enjoys significant backing. The disparities between Gaza and the West Bank underscore the complexity of the Palestinian political situation.
The results raise important questions. Will the decline in support for Hamas lead to a change in policy or leadership? Can Fatah capitalize on its increased support to strengthen its position?
