Amid ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas and the continuation of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, two main options are emerging.
Renewed War or Another Deal
On one hand, there’s the possibility of renewing the war against Hamas and a complete occupation of the Gaza Strip, as the new Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, expresses willingness to dedicate large forces and combat methods that the IDF has yet to try. On the other hand, there’s the option of another round of the hostage deal, extending Phase 1 or officially moving to Phase 2, in a negotiation that would bring home a significant portion of the living hostages (at least 22), amid reports of direct American negotiations with Hamas, threats from President Trump toward the terrorist organization, and various demands from Hamas.
Mossad Official: “The Situation Has Changed”
Oded Ailam, a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Foreign Affairs and former head of the counter-terrorism division at Mossad, provides insight into the situation across various arenas and the complex strategic picture. “Hamas understands its situation is very bad,” says Ailam. “Support from Iran and Hezbollah is almost non-existent, and even in Judea and Samaria, they have not managed to ignite a rebellion.”
Regarding the hostages, Ailam stated that Hamas understands this is the last card they hold: “They will try to stretch this out for years to buy time. Our card is the military threat, but so far we have been limited by American pressure. Now, the situation has changed, Hamas understands that the Americans support our most drastic measures, such as stopping humanitarian aid.”
Ailam also addressed the desired solution for the “day after” in the Gaza Strip: “There is no solution other than to occupy all of Gaza, dismantle Hamas, and install a temporary military rule. Reconstruction will only occur after the Gazans prove they are worthy of autonomy. We must not begin immediate reconstruction of Gaza, otherwise, it sends a message to global Jihad that massacres in Israel are rewarding.”
Concerning Iran, the head of the multi-faceted “octopus,” Ailam warned that “Iran understands that the story with Hezbollah has ended, which is why it is investing efforts in Jordan and in Judea and Samaria. We must keep our eyes open.”
Desire to Leave Hamas
Ailam’s comments regarding Hamas’s weakness resonate with those made by Dr. Edy Cohen, a Middle East expert and social media influencer, who was interviewed by Rega News about a month ago. In his remarks, Dr. Cohen referred to Hamas’s weakness, stemming from a the large number of residents of Gaza who want to leave the Gaza Strip in accordance with the “Trump Plan.” He stated, “If they could, they would leave now. I have no doubt about that, but unfortunately, they won’t open the crossings because they don’t want them. I think they would open them if we told Egypt that we have Palestinians with visas to Singapore, Indonesia, or any other country.”
“The game now is to empty Gaza of Gazans, and we must not do anything by force. I’m talking to several who want to go out, and they are just waiting for that,” Dr. Cohen concluded.
